By Tyler Durden
Authored by Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa via Crescat Capital,
At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September 2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in 2018 as a result of our bearish macro views and positioning last year. We are confident that was only the beginning of a downturn in asset prices from record global leverage and central-bank-driven asset bubbles for this cycle. US asset bubbles only just began to burst at the end of last year as one can see in the chart below.
Year to date, global stocks and corporate credit securities have rallied sharply while economic indicators have continued to deteriorate. This is setting global risk-asset markets up for another down-leg. We haven’t even had a recession yet to end the economic cycle while US stocks are still near record valuations across a breadth of measures. There is tremendous shorting opportunity ahead! With the current quarter, we are now in a tie with the 1990s for the longest US economic expansion ever. Crescat’s macro models show that the expansion is about to …read more
Source:: Zero Hedge