By Tyler Durden
For those wondering what unleashed today’s ferocious post-Trump, post-hawkish Fed speech rally, the reason may have nothing to do with optimism in the economy or another inflow of retail funds, and everything to do with incorrect – and bearish – positioning ahead of Trump’s speech last night.
According to an analysis by the Arora Report, flagged first by Market Watch, and substantiated by various Wall Street comments early in the morning, ahead of Trump’s speech various “large players” were positioned bearishly, assuming that the market rally has been based on hope and that, and that unless the president gave details about plans for the economy, there would be a big selloff. The reasoning, broadly echoed by strategists until yesterday, is that by looking at past speeches of presidents before Congress, the details are almost never there. So it appeared a perfect setup to short sell. And, according to algorithms used by The Arora Report, major traders did just that, building up substantial short positions ahead of Trump’s speech, as shown on the chart below.
However, just like after the Brexit vote, and after the Trump election, following Trump’s speech, when the market did not fall, shorts were forced to cover …read more