In 2016, one pollster got both the national popular vote and Trump’s electoral victory correct. One.
Richard Baris then of the People’s Pundit Daily polling, now Director of Big Data Poll and the PPD Election Projection Model on People’s Pundit Daily, had Trump winning the electoral college by taking Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Rasmussen Reports had Hillary Clinton winning, 45% to 43%, while BDP/PPD had Trump winning the national vote by .6%.
So Baris emerged as the “most accurate pollster of 2016,” a point that really rubs Nate Silver’s 538 the wrong way, and Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics still refuses to include Baris in its list of polls.
I had a conversation with Baris about these and other issues, including the results of the Ohio 12 special election.
LS: Why do you think your model is better than everyone else’s?
RB: We dig down much deeper to determine who is a “likely voter.” Our model is about 60% more reliable in determining the true “likely voter.” We are doing something different and special at Big Data Poll, which we brought over to the model for People’s Pundit Daily. We are digging deeper into the data, our panels are more likely to vote …read more